Evidence that strengthens the system — continuously improving what we know and how we act.
Anticipatory action is a relatively young field, and Kenya's programme is committed to generating the evidence needed to improve its own systems, influence global practice, and advocate for sustained investment from governments and donors.
This pillar drives cost-benefit research, impact evaluations, forecast verification studies, and structured after-action reviews — creating a continuous improvement cycle that makes each activation more effective than the last.
Through partnerships with academic institutions, global research networks like the Anticipation Hub, and national research bodies, the pillar ensures that Kenya's learning contributes to the global evidence base on what works in forecast-based humanitarian action.
Produce rigorous cost-benefit analyses of AA interventions comparing pre-emptive action against equivalent emergency response costs across hazard and livelihood contexts.
Test emerging technologies — remote sensing, mobile data collection, AI forecast processing — that can improve trigger accuracy, beneficiary targeting, or delivery speed.
Build formal research partnerships with Kenyan universities, ILRI, ICPAC, and global AA networks to co-produce evidence that is both locally relevant and globally influential.
Establish structured learning cycles — after-action reviews, annual learning reviews, peer exchanges — that systematically embed evidence into programme adaptation.
Commissioning independent impact evaluations for major AA activations, using control group comparisons where feasible to generate causal evidence on household welfare outcomes.
Producing cost-benefit analyses comparing AA intervention costs against estimated avoided losses and emergency response costs, building the economic case for sustained AA investment.
Piloting emerging technologies — satellite-derived drought indices, mobile beneficiary verification, AI-assisted forecast interpretation — in partnership with tech innovators and academic institutions.
Formalising research partnerships with Kenyan universities and international institutions, co-producing peer-reviewed evidence on trigger calibration, intervention effectiveness, and system governance.
Contributing to the Anticipation Hub, IFRC FbF knowledge management platform, and other global repositories to ensure Kenya's learning informs global AA practice.
Explore evaluation reports, evidence products, and learning publications from Kenya's AA programme.